Hurricane Isaias recovery begins as NOAA updates hurricane season forecast

Recovery efforts have begun throughout the East Coast in the aftermath of Hurricane Isaias.

The Northeast was hit particularly hard as high winds knocked out power for millions of Americans. Many of them are still in the dark days after the storm.

Isaias first hit Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as it traveled through the Caribbean before making landfall in North Carolina on August 3 as a Category 1 storm. Isaias hit the East Coast with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, bringing torrential rains, storm surge, damaging winds and tornadoes.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast recorded wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph as the core of Isaias passed through the region.

Forecasters update season outlook, calling for even more storm activity

Damage assessments and cleanup efforts begin as both NOAA and Colorado State University (CSU) update their forecasts for the 2020 hurricane season, now calling for an “extremely active” season, predicting 10 to 15 named storms.

In this latest forecast, CSU anticipates 24 named storms (up from 20 in the July update), 12 hurricanes (up from nine), and five major hurricanes (up from four). For context, a typical hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, has 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, according to the Triple-I.

So far this season, nine named storms and two hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Basin.

“We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the CSU forecast reads.

In their update, CSU forecasters also added an important reminder for all coastal residents.

“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

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Commercial P&C Insurance

Commercial Office Space Set for a Strong Comeback

The sustained increase in demand for office space across the nation since late 2022 suggests that the market has moved past its lowest point, according to insights from the real estate technology platform, VTS. Demand for office space began to rise in late 2022 and continued into early 2023. Since then, the office market has experienced a period of stability and growth, supported by favorable economic factors, indicating a market rebound. This conclusion is drawn from the VTS Office Demand Index (VODI), which tracks unique new tenant tour requests for office properties in key U.S. markets. The VODI serves as an early indicator of future office leasing activity. According to the index, demand for office space has grown consistently over the past 12 months, closing the second quarter with a 17% year-over-year increase and a 34% rise from the VODI’s lowest point in December 2022. A significant shift in office-based employment patterns further supports the belief that demand for office space has stabilized. After reaching its peak in August 2022, office-based employment declined by 3.9% in early 2024. However, this trend has since stabilized, and employment growth has remained steady. Additionally, a recent decrease in work-from-home rates has fueled the renewed demand for office space. “They say you can only recognize a market bottom after it has passed, and the office space market is no exception. Following what we now see as the bottom, the national demand has gradually increased, though it remains susceptible to economic challenges,” said Nick Romito, CEO of VTS. “However, the growth observed in VODI over the past 18 months, coupled with positive trends in the office-using workforce, suggests that the market has reset, and the worst is behind us.” It’s important to note that this national trend does not impact all local markets equally. Cities like Los Angeles and New York City have seen healthy growth in office space demand, while markets such as San Francisco and Washington, D.C., have experienced prolonged stagnation. In Los Angeles, office space demand surged in the second quarter, briefly surpassing pre-COVID levels, driven by an increase in the average size of office spaces sought by tenants. New York City followed a similar overall pattern, though with some softness in the second quarter. Conversely, San Francisco’s demand for office space remains unpredictable, largely due to its tech-focused workforce, which continues to favor remote work more than other industries. “Markets heavily dependent on the tech sector, like San Francisco and Seattle, are on a markedly different post-COVID recovery path compared to more diversified markets like Los Angeles and New York City. It may take some time before we see office demand in San Francisco and Seattle return to pre-COVID levels,” added Ryan Masiello, Chief Strategy Officer at VTS.

Cyber Liability

Global IT Outage Puts Business Interruption Insurance in the Spotlight

In July, a global IT outage had a significant impact on business interruption insurance policies, overshadowing the effects on cyber insurance coverages. “This incident wasn’t a result of a malicious attack, which is why typical cyber insurance policies may not have been activated,” explained Peter McMurtrie, a partner in West Monroe’s insurance sector, in an interview with PropertyCasualty360.com. “Where coverage was applicable, factors like deductible amounts, waiting periods, and coverage limits played a critical role in determining the extent of exposure,” McMurtrie noted. “Standard policies for small businesses were less likely to offer coverage, while more complex policies for mid-sized companies and Fortune 500 corporations may have included broader triggers for non-malicious outages caused by third-party software issues.” The outage was triggered by a software update on July 19, 2024, by cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, which affected organizations worldwide using Microsoft Windows. This interruption had far-reaching consequences, including disrupting hospital systems, media outlets, financial institutions, delaying thousands of flights, and halting daily business operations. McMurtrie emphasized that while the initial impact of the outage was similar for both large and small businesses, the ability to recover operations and whether insurance covered the loss of business income varied. “Larger companies are more likely to have advanced disaster recovery plans that ensure service redundancy following unexpected outages,” he added. “Their insurance programs also tend to cover a wider range of incidents.” According to Microsoft, the CrowdStrike update error affected over 8.5 million Windows devices globally. The incident highlighted the interconnected nature of our global ecosystem, including cloud providers, software platforms, security services, and their clients. “It’s a stark reminder of the importance of prioritizing safe deployment and disaster recovery across the tech industry,” the company said in a blog post. McMurtrie pointed out that the outage’s widespread impact was largely due to its effect on organizations that are critical to societal infrastructure—sectors like agriculture, airlines, banking, energy, government, healthcare, manufacturing, and retail. “Insurance companies base their risk appetite on their ability to understand and price risks appropriately. This becomes increasingly challenging with emerging threats,” he said. “However, I anticipate that insurers will respond by clarifying policy language, refining risk selection criteria, and possibly developing new products specifically designed for this evolving exposure.”

Hurricane Isaias recovery begins as NOAA updates hurricane season forecast