How location dictates your Thanksgiving COVID-19 exposure risk

An interactive map developed by academics shows the risk level of attending a Thanksgiving event based on its size and location.

For a party size of 50 people, at the highest end of the scale, the most at-risk locations have a 99% chance of COVID infection.

As Americans prepare to celebrate Thanksgiving 2020, COVID-19 cases are surging across the country. More than 1 million COVID-19 cases have been reported in the U.S. in the last week, according to the CDC, and the infection rate continues to increase daily.

This surge comes just days before millions of Americans are expected to travel for Thanksgiving, according to AAA, worrying health experts and state officials, who are issuing warnings to the public and installing state-wide mandates to slow the spread.

Researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory and Stanford University recently developed an interactive map tool that measures the risk level of attending a Thanksgiving event based on its size and location. The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool breaks down U.S. risk by county and also includes international data.

Spearheaded by Georgia Tech Professors Joshua Weitz and Clio Andris, the map tool was designed to help policymakers, event planners and individuals measure COVID risk exposure during the upcoming holiday. It has since been used by the Georgia Municipal Association, which represents all the mayors in that state, as well as organizations such as the Special Olympics to assess the risk of holding events, according to the L.A. Times.

Based on the map, for a party size of 50 people, at the highest end of the scale, the most at-risk locations pose a 99% chance of COVID infection. These counties are located primarily in North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Wisconsin and Alaska.

The COVID risk tool measures risk levels as the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least one COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event. Researchers explain that based on seroprevalence data and increases in testing, by default, the test assumes there are five times more cases than are being reported (5:1 ascertainment bias). In places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher.

The CDC is advising the safest way to celebrate Thanksgiving this year is to stay home with the people you live with.

COVID risks can, of course, be reduced by wearing a mask, distancing, and gathering outdoors in smaller groups.

Before committing to holiday travel or party plans this year, measure the risk at-hand, and consider any precautions that may be valuable in protecting yourself and loved ones, and also secure money spent on travel plans with the right travel insurance.

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Commercial P&C Insurance

Commercial Office Space Set for a Strong Comeback

The sustained increase in demand for office space across the nation since late 2022 suggests that the market has moved past its lowest point, according to insights from the real estate technology platform, VTS. Demand for office space began to rise in late 2022 and continued into early 2023. Since then, the office market has experienced a period of stability and growth, supported by favorable economic factors, indicating a market rebound. This conclusion is drawn from the VTS Office Demand Index (VODI), which tracks unique new tenant tour requests for office properties in key U.S. markets. The VODI serves as an early indicator of future office leasing activity. According to the index, demand for office space has grown consistently over the past 12 months, closing the second quarter with a 17% year-over-year increase and a 34% rise from the VODI’s lowest point in December 2022. A significant shift in office-based employment patterns further supports the belief that demand for office space has stabilized. After reaching its peak in August 2022, office-based employment declined by 3.9% in early 2024. However, this trend has since stabilized, and employment growth has remained steady. Additionally, a recent decrease in work-from-home rates has fueled the renewed demand for office space. “They say you can only recognize a market bottom after it has passed, and the office space market is no exception. Following what we now see as the bottom, the national demand has gradually increased, though it remains susceptible to economic challenges,” said Nick Romito, CEO of VTS. “However, the growth observed in VODI over the past 18 months, coupled with positive trends in the office-using workforce, suggests that the market has reset, and the worst is behind us.” It’s important to note that this national trend does not impact all local markets equally. Cities like Los Angeles and New York City have seen healthy growth in office space demand, while markets such as San Francisco and Washington, D.C., have experienced prolonged stagnation. In Los Angeles, office space demand surged in the second quarter, briefly surpassing pre-COVID levels, driven by an increase in the average size of office spaces sought by tenants. New York City followed a similar overall pattern, though with some softness in the second quarter. Conversely, San Francisco’s demand for office space remains unpredictable, largely due to its tech-focused workforce, which continues to favor remote work more than other industries. “Markets heavily dependent on the tech sector, like San Francisco and Seattle, are on a markedly different post-COVID recovery path compared to more diversified markets like Los Angeles and New York City. It may take some time before we see office demand in San Francisco and Seattle return to pre-COVID levels,” added Ryan Masiello, Chief Strategy Officer at VTS.

Cyber Liability

Global IT Outage Puts Business Interruption Insurance in the Spotlight

In July, a global IT outage had a significant impact on business interruption insurance policies, overshadowing the effects on cyber insurance coverages. “This incident wasn’t a result of a malicious attack, which is why typical cyber insurance policies may not have been activated,” explained Peter McMurtrie, a partner in West Monroe’s insurance sector, in an interview with PropertyCasualty360.com. “Where coverage was applicable, factors like deductible amounts, waiting periods, and coverage limits played a critical role in determining the extent of exposure,” McMurtrie noted. “Standard policies for small businesses were less likely to offer coverage, while more complex policies for mid-sized companies and Fortune 500 corporations may have included broader triggers for non-malicious outages caused by third-party software issues.” The outage was triggered by a software update on July 19, 2024, by cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, which affected organizations worldwide using Microsoft Windows. This interruption had far-reaching consequences, including disrupting hospital systems, media outlets, financial institutions, delaying thousands of flights, and halting daily business operations. McMurtrie emphasized that while the initial impact of the outage was similar for both large and small businesses, the ability to recover operations and whether insurance covered the loss of business income varied. “Larger companies are more likely to have advanced disaster recovery plans that ensure service redundancy following unexpected outages,” he added. “Their insurance programs also tend to cover a wider range of incidents.” According to Microsoft, the CrowdStrike update error affected over 8.5 million Windows devices globally. The incident highlighted the interconnected nature of our global ecosystem, including cloud providers, software platforms, security services, and their clients. “It’s a stark reminder of the importance of prioritizing safe deployment and disaster recovery across the tech industry,” the company said in a blog post. McMurtrie pointed out that the outage’s widespread impact was largely due to its effect on organizations that are critical to societal infrastructure—sectors like agriculture, airlines, banking, energy, government, healthcare, manufacturing, and retail. “Insurance companies base their risk appetite on their ability to understand and price risks appropriately. This becomes increasingly challenging with emerging threats,” he said. “However, I anticipate that insurers will respond by clarifying policy language, refining risk selection criteria, and possibly developing new products specifically designed for this evolving exposure.”

How location dictates your Thanksgiving COVID-19 exposure risk